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……………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Nguyên văn bài báo Anh ngữ
Vietnam : Plenty to
smile about
Mar 29th 2007 | BANGKOK AND HO CHI MINH CITY
From The Economist print edition
http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8929218
But despite
its successes, Vietnam's ruling Communist Party remains terrified of any
challenge to its monopoly on power
A
SUSTAINED boom, with annual economic growth consistently around 7-8% since 2000,
has transformed Vietnam. Ho Chi Minh City (Saigon), its largest conurbation, is
bustling, confident and expanding fast. Its fancy restaurants and designer
shops are not just for the increasing numbers of foreign tourists and
businessmen. The middle class seems broader, and the gap between rich and poor
narrower, than in many other South-East Asian cities.
It is over
20 years since Vietnam's ruling communists abandoned collectivism and embarked
on their doi moi market-based reforms, not unlike those China adopted
a few years earlier. The country has come far since then. In Hanoi, the
capital, food was rationed in the gloomy pre-reform era, and even senior
officials wore threadbare clothes. “Boat people” were washing up on foreign
shores.
Vietnam
does not have the billion-plus populations of China and India. But with 84m
people, it is no minnow. It is a serious contender in the world economy,
especially since joining the World Trade Organisation this year. It has become
Brazil's main rival in coffee exporting and Thailand's in rice. Vietnam is one
of Asia's most open economies: two-way trade is around 160% of GDP, more than twice the ratio for China and over four times
India's.
The
country has put the wars of the 1960s and 1970s behind it. Americans are welcome
these days, especially if they bring dollars to invest. Likewise, an ancient
animosity with China—a frequent invader down the centuries—has been put aside
in the interests of prosperity.
Reform has
come in fits and starts since doi moi began but, at present, Vietnam's
palpable success encourages boldness. The National Assembly this week urged the
government to press on with building a market economy. The government in turn
is pressing state firms for faster privatisation plans. Vietnam had only begun
opening when Asia's 1997 economic storm hit, so, unlike some of its neighbours
(see article),
it was largely unscathed, and growth has accelerated since.
Where did
it all go right? Observers detect a strengthening will to win among the
Vietnamese but struggle to explain it. One factor is the self-confidence that
comes from having, as they see it, beaten off three world powers (America,
China and France) in the past half-century. There is also Confucianism: Vietnam
has kept some useful bits, such as the belief in education and self-betterment,
without the feudalistic overtones. And success has bred success—liberalisation
is producing prosperity, encouraging further reform.
Vietnam
has a corruption problem but is taking serious steps to tackle it. A former
deputy trade minister was jailed last week for 14 years for bribery—the latest
among dozens of top officials given stiff penalties for dishonesty. The armed
forces, such a baleful influence in some countries, are fairly clean. Many
Asian economies are sucked dry by entrenched, predatory elites. In Vietnam,
although collectivist economics have gone, the government remains collective
and consensual. Leadership is shared between the party boss, president and
prime minister. No personality cults are allowed, other than the one idolising
Ho Chi Minh, the revolutionary leader, who died in 1969.
The
Vietnamese are enjoying new-found wealth and personal choice, including being
allowed to educate their children abroad. Party bosses, conscious of what
happened to their former backers in the deceased Soviet Union, realise that
they must keep the people happy to stay in power. So far it is working. “Right
now people don't think about politics,” says Nguyen Kim Dinh, a former
city-government worker who now plays Vietnam's stockmarket full-time. “They
just think about earning money.”
Even so,
the National Assembly, once a rubber stamp, has become a forum for real debate
and scrutiny. Serious criticisms of the government are aired and reported in
the press. A record number of self-nominated candidates are standing in the
Assembly elections due in May.
However,
the party remains terrified of the slightest challenge to its monopoly on
power. The press is to remain party-run and independent candidates for the
election must still be party-approved. The government claims no one is arrested
for his political views, but in reality it treats pro-democracy activists as
common criminals, jailing them for supposed spying or sabotage. In February
charges were laid against
“The
dissidents are getting bolder,” says Nguyen Manh Hung, an America-based
Vietnamese academic. But Carl Thayer, a veteran Vietnam-watcher from the
Australian Defence Force Academy, reckons that stronger pressure is coming from
reformers inside the party, whose demands are remarkably similar to the
dissidents'. Either way, as the Vietnamese enjoy more economic freedom and as
more exiled Vietnamese return, bringing foreign ideas of pluralism and free
speech, expectations of political liberty will grow.
If so, the ruling party
has several regional models from which it can choose. In prosperous Singapore,
the People's Action Party allows opposition parties to operate within strict
constraints. In prosperous Taiwan, the Kuomintang has abandoned absolute rule
for genuine alternation of power. But despite Vietnam's economic success there
is little sign to date that the ruling party feels sure enough of its
popularity to permit genuine political competition. Fear can be a habit for the
ruler, as well as the ruled./.
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